2012 Possibilities

As 2012 approaches we have a growing list of what "experts" feel might occur. Despite the sincerity and long-winded explanations, it's all just guesswork. There is no scientific evidence that anything untoward will happen in 2012. All we have to suggest that 2012 will be any different to 2011 or 2013 is that the Mayan Long Count calendar ends on Dec 21, 2012. The Mayans themselves had almost nothing to say about what the end of the calendar held for humankind, and this suggests that they merely inherited the calendar from an earlier culture. In deciding which of the many possible calamities are more likely to wipe us out in 2012, the possibility of an ancient culture predicting such for 2012 must be taken into consideration.
12diggsdigg Here's my list of possibilities, ranked on 3 criteria; the relative odds of happening this century, of happening in 2012, and of the ancients being able to predict such a thing. Regarding aliens and a religious apocalypse, while I don't believe in these things personally, they are on the list due to the billions of folk that do believe in them

1. Asteroid/Meteor/Comet - ancient, advanced civilisations have one distinct advantage over us - they may have observed the skies for longer, and may have spotted an orbit that will culminate in a collision with Earth in 2012. This is easily the most predictable disaster for 2012. With recent discussion of "dark comets", we have become aware of the possibility of our planet being struck with little or no warning. Read the full article on Comets and Asteroids

Possibility this century	9
Possibility in 2012	8
Could Ancients Predict It?	10
TOTAL	27

2. Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from our Sun - a CME was behind the solar storm of 1859. It occurred in September of that year, causing the failure of telegraph systems across North America and Europe. Accompanying the storm were auroras that are normally only seen in the Arctic and Antarctic, but were visible as far south as the Caribbean. Typically we would expect a storm of 1859's magnitude cause power blackouts and wreck satellites. But do we really know how big they can get? In 2009 NASA told us to be wary of solar storms, and warned of the dangers to America's ancient overloaded power grid. Being without power for a few months, in the developed world, is a lot more serious than most people realise.

Possibility this century	10
Possibility in 2012	8
Could Ancients Predict It?	6
TOTAL	24

3. Magnetic Pole Shift - pole reversals have been happening on average once every 400,000 years, with the most recent one being 730,000 years ago - so we are well overdue. Not only do we not know much about reversals, scientists are still unsure about how our magnetic field is generated. Long thought to be a by-product of the movements of liquid iron in our planet's core, recent studies are suggesting that our salty oceans might be the cause. Scientists suggest a geomagnetic reversal takes thousands of years and does no harm. They are wrong - it could just as easily happen overnight. No mechanism is known for the cause of the magnetic poles swapping places. Our magnetic field is known to be rapidly declining (10% in the last 150 years), and the magnetic North pole is moving around at an accelerating pace - it has been predicted it will move from Canada to Siberia in the next 50 years. These changes could be indicating an imminent reversal.

Possibility this century	8
Possibility in 2012	7
Could Ancients Predict It?	7
TOTAL	22

4. Explosion from the black hole at the center of our galaxy - in 1983 Dr Paul LaViolette described the dangers of a Galactic core explosion. He explained that it would generate a cosmic ray superwave, and it would be signalled by a gamma ray burst (see below). He also warned us that a gravity wave might travel ahead of the superwave. If seems likely that the 2004 tsunami was caused by a gravity wave, because the accompanying GRB arrived just 21 hours later, and was the brightest ever observed, 100 times brighter than any other seen in recorded history. This gravity wave did not come from our galactic center, but if it had, perhaps the effects would have been much worse.

Possibility this century	8
Possibility in 2012	7
Could Ancients Predict It?	6
TOTAL	21

5. Religious Apocalypse - or rapture, or "judgement day". Most religions predict such a day. Conspiracy theorists suggest that many world leaders have apocalyptic beliefs, and may even be attempting to cause Biblical prophecy to be fulfilled in 2012 via their actions. If it helps, the Bible says “But of that day and hour knoweth no one, not even the angels of heaven, neither the Son, but the Father only.” But then again, maybe God changed his mind since the Bible was written, and told some people the date of the apocalypse? Maybe he told the ancient Mayans? Possibilities could be argued ad infinitum

Possibility this century	6
Possibility in 2012	6
Could Ancients Predict It?	8
TOTAL	20

6. Alien Invasion - no evidence, but plenty of believers! Tied in with this are recent crop circles that have 2012 and Mayan themes. If aliens are the creators of crop circles, then one would expect the circles to be a warning of sorts.

Possibility this century	7
Possibility in 2012	6
Could Ancients Predict It?	7
TOTAL	20

7. Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) - a 2004 study told us that a GRB from a distance of just one kiloparsec could destroy half of Earth's ozone layer. It suggests that historical mass extinctions may have been caused by GRBs. NASA explains how "gamma-ray radiation from a relatively nearby star explosion, hitting the Earth for only ten seconds, could deplete up to half of the atmosphere's protective ozone layer. Recovery could take at least five years. With the ozone layer damaged, ultraviolet radiation from the Sun could kill much of the life on land and near the surface of oceans and lakes, and disrupt the food chain."

Possibility this century	7
Possibility in 2012	7
Could Ancients Predict It?	5
TOTAL	19

8. Crustal Displacement - a physical pole shift. The mechanism is not understood, and most theories are just wild guesses. However it seems quite likely we had one 12,000 years ago, and what goes around, comes around. Charles Hapgood provided substantial evidence for a pole shift at that time, and Allan and Delair have added to it in their book Cataclysm!: Compelling Evidence of a Cosmic Catastrophe in 9500 B.C. Take into account that Albert Einstein endorsed Hapgood's ideas, and we have something to worry about.

Possibility this century	6
Possibility in 2012	6
Could Ancients Predict It?	6
TOTAL	18

9. Cosmic Rays - scientists have yet to work out where most high-energy cosmic rays come from. Either an increase striking our atmosphere, or a weakening of our shields, will let in more cosmic rays. They are already zipping through your body every second, and they could end up being our silent killers. As one example of their danger, airlines do not let pregnant women work on their inter-continental routes, because of the increased exposure to cosmic rays at those heights.

Possibility this century	8
Possibility in 2012	6
Could Ancients Predict It?	3
TOTAL	17

10. Flu Pandemic - it might not be swine flu, but flu researchers say a deadly pandemic is not a case of if, but when. Our generation is generally unaware of how bad the pandemic of 1918 was - it killed 50 million people. It was the number one cause of death amongst soldiers in WW1. Being killed by the enemy came second.

Possibility this century	10
Possibility in 2012	6
Could Ancients Predict It?	1
TOTAL	17

11. Nuclear War / WW3 / Biological War - although the Cold War is over, and fewer bunkers are being built, the threat is still very real. Tensions between the Koreas, and India & Pakistan are worrisome, as are the huge bunkers that the Russians have built. The Yamantau complex is large enough to protect 60,000 people!

Possibility this century	10
Possibility in 2012	5
Could Ancients Predict It?	2
TOTAL	17

12. Supervolcano - these are real, they have caused great catastrophes in the past, and we have no idea when the next eruption will be. Some believe Yellowstone could explode again soon, as it has been exhibiting signs of unrest, with earthquake swarms, ground deformation and considerable heat and gas emissions. It it did erupt, expect half of the USA to be wiped out, and major variations in global climate for many years. For more information, watch documentaries by the BBC and Discovery Channel, and read my online article on SuperVolcanoes.

Possibility this century	7
Possibility in 2012	4
Could Ancients Predict It?	5
TOTAL	16

13. Rise of the Machines - somewhere between Terminator and I Robot is an easy prediction: robots one day will have the capacity to rule the world. Are we stupid enough to allow it to happen?

Possibility this century	10
Possibility in 2012	2
Could Ancients Predict It?	2
TOTAL	14

14. Global Warming - it will only take an increase of a couple of degrees to make life very difficult for most humans. Luckily for us, it is unlikely to wipe us out as early as 2012.

Possibility this century	9
Possibility in 2012	3
Could Ancients Predict It?	2
TOTAL	14

15. Time Travel Error - someone from the future ventures into our past and causes a conflict in the time-space continuum... if it causes us harm in 2012, maybe someone managed to zip back in time and warn the ancients of it?

Possibility this century	6
Possibility in 2012	3
Could Ancients Predict It?	4
TOTAL	13

16. Nanotechnology - while this might have health concerns when used in everyday products (ie sunscreen), the doomsday risk is when self-replicating little thingies are developed. Search for "grey goo". Fortunately 2012 seems too soon for some mad scientist to let the goo loose.

Possibility this century	9
Possibility in 2012	2
Could Ancients Predict It?	1
TOTAL	12

17. Nearby Supernova - experts say that no supernova candidates are close enough to harm us. But how many supernovas have they observed? This is where, after the fact, scientists proclaim "but of course!"

Possibility this century	5
Possibility in 2012	4
Could Ancients Predict It?	3
TOTAL	12

18. Genetic Modification - we blindly take vaccinations, and we might be sheep when it comes to "gene therapy" as well. Our desire to live longer might just be our undoing.

Possibility this century	8
Possibility in 2012	3
Could Ancients Predict It?	1
TOTAL	12

19. Nuclear Accident - nothing is foolproof. We've had such accidents in the past, and a bigger accident is totally possible. Hard for the ancients to predict, though.

Possibility this century	8
Possibility in 2012	2
Could Ancients Predict It?	1
TOTAL	11

20. Ice Age - right now the buzz is about "global warming", yet a mere thirty years ago we were worried about an impending Ice Age. There is evidence that parts of our climate system work more like a switch than a dial, and if a certain level of temperature is reached, it may cause what is known as "abrupt climate change". See the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" for how it might work.

Possibility this century	6
Possibility in 2012	1
Could Ancients Predict It?	2
TOTAL	9

21. Solar System Falls Apart (butterfly effect) - to the best of our knowledge, everything is OK for a long, long time. However simulations have shown how Mercury could cause Earth and Mars to collide a few billion years from now. But throw a stray comet or Planet X into the mix, and our solar system could turn into a catastrophic pinball machine any old time.

Possibility this century	0
Possibility in 2012	0
Could Ancients Predict It?	4
TOTAL	4

22. Large Hadron Collider - scientists tinkering with something they think they understand the risks of, but what if there's a 0.000001% chance their black hole calculations are wrong? Is it worth the risk? Originally we were told by CERN scientists that it was impossible for a black hole (that might gobble up the entire planet) to be created by the LHC, because it "would decay before it had the chance to do any damage". This has recently been updated to "the growth of black holes to catastrophic size does not seem possible.”